Evaluate Forecasts Pharmaceutical Market to be Worth $1.6tn in 2028

New World Preview report finds strong top-line growth as pricing and patent headwinds build

London, UK and Boston, MA – 18 October 2022: The global pharmaceutical industry is set to see sales grow by an annualised 6% between 2022 and 2028, according to the latest World Preview published by Evaluate Ltd. The annual report, which details the future of the biopharmaceutical sector, forecasts industry revenues of $1.6tn in six years’ time.

Leading this market will be Roche, currently the fifth largest player in the market, with $62.7bn of forecast sales in 2028, accounting for 3.9% of the worldwide market. AbbVie is seen closely behind with prescription sales of $62bn that year. The fastest growing big pharma player will be AstraZeneca, according to Evaluate, whose top-line is predicted to expand by 5.8% year on year, to 2028.

Mike Gallup, CEO of Norstella, Evaluate’s parent company said: “The latest data from our consensus forecasts shows an industry in good shape over the coming years. While the stock market, even for the biggest players, is a tough place for pharma and biotech at the moment, a 6% growth rate shows good fundamentals, even amid widespread economic and geopolitical turmoil.”

The report, which draws on consensus forecast data from Evaluate Pharma and predictive data from Evaluate Omnium also highlights the impending patent cliff, with patent expiries in the next six years potentially putting up to $108bn of sales at risk. However, Evaluate forecasts expected sales lost to be a more moderate $26bn, given the industry’s expertise at defending blockbuster franchises.

Key report findings include:

• R&D growth will slow to 2.6% between 2022 and 2028, down from 7.3% from 2014 to 2021
• Roche will be the largest pharmaceutical company by revenue in 2028
• Keytruda will be the top selling drug in 2028
• For the first time, an Alzheimer’s drug (gantenerumab from Roche and MorphoSys) is ranked as the most valuable R&D project
• Combined obesity sales in 2028 are forecast to hit $11bn, an annualised growth rate of 30%

Gallup added: “The slower rate of growth in R&D spend may look surprising, but this doesn’t necessarily mean less innovation. Increased efficiency in clinical trials, more digital tools and greater use of machine learning in drug discovery – as well as a pullback from huge Covid-related spend – all mean that efficiencies can be found across the development pipeline”.

The report, Evaluate World Preview 2022: Outlook to 2028 is now available for download. A webinar will take place on 3rd November at 3pm GMT, 11am EST. Registration is available here: https://info.evaluate.com/World-Preview-webinar-registraton.html